ICRA Insight

November 2025

Foreword

We are pleased to present the November 2025 edition of ICRA Insights.

This month’s Insight talks of October CPI inflation easing to 0.25%, supported by GST rationalisation and festive demand, as precious metals surge. FY2026 inflation is expected to average near 2%, with GDP growth around 7%. A final 25 bps rate cut in December remains likely.

In our Spotlight on CSR, we feature our Career Guidance Drive at VIDYA School, Gurugram aimed at empowering students for a brighter tomorrow.

The Research Recap covers RBIs proposed ECL framework, the draft circular on capital relief for banks, and the MPC’s dovish stance.

This edition also brings you webinar details, rating updates, methodologies, media coverage, and our latest podcast on cybersecurity initiatives strengthening digital resilience. We hope you find this edition insightful and engaging.

K. Ravichandran

Chief Ratings Officer, ICRA Limited.

Aditi Nayar

Chief Economist, ICRA Limited.

Monthly Macro Wrap

October CPI inflation dropped to 0.25%, aided by GST rationalisation and festive demand, despite a spike in gold and silver prices. FY2026 average may hover near 2%, but inflation is set to rise in the coming months. With GDP growth around 7%, a final 25 bps rate cut in December remains likely, contingent on transmission and trade developments.

Listen to the podcast

Spotlight
on CSR

Igniting Ambition, Inspiring Futures.

Through our Career Guidance Drive at VIDYA School, Gurugram, we empowered students with insights and hope, investing in young minds today to build a brighter tomorrow. Click here to know more!

Research Recap

RBI’s proposed ECL framework

The RBI proposes moving from incurred loss to expected credit loss, introducing risk-based staging and predictive provisioning. This forward-looking approach enhances early risk recognition, aligning banks closer to Ind-AS standards for proactive portfolio management.

RBI Draft Circular: Capital Relief for Banks

Lower risk weights for AA, BBB, BB, and A1-rated exposures could free up capital, improve banks’ capitalisation, partly offsetting ECL impact—though rating-to-risk weight mapping variations warrant a careful attention.

MPC Holds Rates, Signals Dovish Outlook

Repo rate stays at 5.5%; CPI forecast trimmed to 2.6% and GDP raised to 6.8%. A final 25 bps cut remains possible by early 2026, contingent on transmission and GST-driven growth dynamics.